The Rupee- May 23

By Mathew John
Today, the dollar/rupee opened at Rs.40.55/57 and is trading steady about the same levels. There is overwhelming interest in the INR overseas as most emerging currencies are rising. The Philippine peso jumped to its highest level for nearly seven years against the dollar as stocks in Manila hit a record peak. The FT reports that other emerging currencies the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah and Turkish lira all hovered near multi-year highs against the dollar. As we have been telling the 40.50 levels are increasingly becoming a very important technical level a break of which can push rupee downwards. Yesterday, UBS said on CNBC that they see rupee falling to 38.50 in the near term. But Mint reports that Goldman Sacchs and Deutche bank citing risk reversal from call options pricing going in the market, a bullish in USD/INR anytime. According to us the resistance at 40.80 is the most crucial level and a break of which will open up the 41.05 levels. As of now the range of 40.50 and 40.80 is holding with an behind-the-curtains war between hedge funds and RBI.